傳統智慧，四個字冠冕堂皇。在小時不知有多少不可解的規矩，以及動作，需要按足其指示進行，稍有不慎，即被高層破口大罵，嚇得不敢作聲。到長大了少許，總算敢防於提出其疑問，但有關當局卻必定會有這樣的回答：
「Hey（作第五聲拖長狀），呢 d 傳統黎架嘛！」
一切都這樣理所當然，就像教廷那時堅信地球是方的一樣。兩週一聚愈搞愈旺，正當想著大家都要在今天，對各項傳統智慧歌頌一番之際，我卻想淘氣搗蛋，在旁靜靜地澆上一杯冷水：要懂得欣賞傳統智慧之餘，亦要有反傳統智慧的決心！
舉一個好簡單又合乎現時環境的例子。自次按危機爆發開始了漫長的熊市後，不少投資名人不止一次站出來，強調趁低吸納的重要；正當人人又對恆指在某天暴跌上千點而瘋狂沽貨止蝕的時候，又被那些股壇高手高手高高手所恥笑，因為他們深信「人人貪婪時就要恐慌，到人人恐慌時就要貪婪」的傳統金科玉律，現在反而是入貨好時機。
結果大家都知道，即使強如股神巴菲特，亦在是次投資損手，向各股東道歉。
這種情況，有個很生動的形容詞，叫「老貓燒鬚」，就好像叮噹偶爾百寶袋失靈那樣，經驗再老到，積聚了上千年的傳統智慧於一身，也不代表沒有失敗的可能。「一本通書不能看到老」，這句話，正正是以傳統智慧反傳統智慧。
所以，有些傳統智慧，還得看環境情況，再細細評估其準確性，尤其是在這百年一遇的金融海嘯，很多事，或許一早已經變天，再也行不通。就好像有一天，你的伴侶有天灼傷了手，你竟然還拿來豉油，說要用來浸傷口，結果不是可想而知嗎？XD
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其他傳統人士：
加燦 (出題者)、周游、hevangel、Sherry、michelle、軍師奶、Ian、C9讀與食、lomichee、zero、芸、mad dog、chili mom、mingmanfred、hongkieatlarge、athrunz、Haricot 微豆、Silver、The Man who Loves Everton、hihisimon、longqt、肥肥媽媽、
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下期兩周一聚(十二)四月十五日題目：怕 (出題者：hevangel)
好一個: 「一本通書不能看到老」，這句話，正正是以傳統智慧反傳統智慧。
所以話人有時要識得變通。
甚麼老貓燒鬚、甚麼一本通書，其實一切都是命運 - Karma。俗語說得好︰食幾多、著幾多，整定！
這個傳統智慧最不傳統。
只要掌握Kama Sutra，就一生受用。
養兒防老還行唔行得通呢?
gwen：或者要窮，窮則變，變則通！呢個又係另一個傳統智慧。XD
Beethoven：一命二運三風水亦都係傳統智慧呀Beethoven。
:P：一日唔講 d 賤野你個口會痕？XDD
Exile from hk：同樣，家有一老如有一寶既傳統智慧，仲有無人信呢又？
原以為大禹治水仍可沾沾自喜, 誰知殺出個海嘯來, 老祖宗也沒撤, 棺材中都睡不穩, 兒孫們自求多福吧.
「一本通書不能看到老」這例子又舉得好喎 !
點絳唇：哈哈，這些事阿爺在努力地救。
Michelle：見笑了，只是想轉個角度寫傳統智慧而已。
Thanks for sharing your thoughts here.
It is important to learn from our mistakes right? Warren is no different. I hope he has learned the needed lesson (about $10 billion worth of mistakes).
Of course, you may be right in discounting him because of his recent mistakes. But I won’t becasue he is not a “new” investors after all. And investment is not a game of 一時三刻.
I am not criticising his thoughts in investing in a long term basis. I am criticising people saying out the stock market is bottoming out too easily.
南杏,
There are many people making stock market predictions. There will always be “investors” that “invest” (or more appropriately gamble with others, it is the nature of “investing”.
Now, no disrespect to you, here is what Buffett himself. Not second hand info, first hand.
“A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. […]
Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.”
I doubt we can fairly interpret what Warren wrote above as him “calling the bottom”.
Warrem does not do short term predictions, ever, as far as I know.
source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html
Yep he does not do first term predictions. The make things clear from the article I am not trying to say buffet did things incorrectly, my logic is just: some so called financial actors just merely said the stock market is bottoming out -> but the fact is not -> and even buffet had some loss. I used Buffet as an example showing the most rational investor was having a loss in this period of time that means those people wrongly quoting something seems conventional widsom but intepreting it wrongly might not be very appropriate.
When Warren said this, “A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.” He didn’t mean indiscriminately buying or buying a sector, etc.
南杏, I consider it as improper (for me) to debate you about finance and investment in a blog entry that is supposed to be fun. I will save my comments when you wrote a specific entry about investment or finance. While I am neither a financial nor an investment expert, I do have lot more to say. But not in a blog entry under “傳統智慧”.
OK XD
「人人貪婪時就要恐慌，到人人恐慌時就要貪婪」這傳統金科玉律，我認為重點是不要被別人影響自己的決定。
不錯。自己出手，責住無法諉過他人，願賭服輸。